This essay is being written. It accompanies the Burn Rate & Runway Calculator.
Every founder knows their burn rate. Fewer know their death date. And almost none have modeled what happens if their biggest customer churns, their hire takes three months longer, or the round they're planning gets pushed by a quarter.
The difference between a founder who survives and one who doesn't is rarely the idea, the market, or even the team. It's whether they saw the wall coming early enough to change course.
Runway isn't a number. It's a countdown. The founders who treat it like a weapon -- cutting early, raising before they need to, modeling the worst case -- are the ones still standing in year three.
YC's guidance is simple: start fundraising when you have 6 months of runway left. But that assumes your round closes in 3 months. In 2024-2025, the median time to close a seed round stretched past 5 months. If you start raising at 6 months, you might already be too late.
We built the Burn Rate Calculator with scenario modeling because one number isn't enough. You need to see five futures at once -- base case, pessimistic, growth -- and know exactly which one you're trending toward.
Full essay coming soon. Try the calculator →